Modelling the Potential Impact of Stigma on the Transmission Dynamics of COVID-19 in South Africa

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic continues to be a problem in South Africa. Individuals affected and infected by the disease suffer from stigma resulting in increased COVID-19 infections. In this paper, we developed a mathematical model to assess the effects of stigma on COVID-19 in South Africa, using low, moderate, and high stigma regimes in the population. The mathematical model was analysed and the basic reproduction number, R0, of the COVID-19 model with stigma was determined. The model was then fitted to data of the four COVID-19 waves for the new daily infected cases, and the estimated parameter values from different waves are presented. The effects of stigma on COVID-19 waves were examined using the four stigma regimes (high, moderate, low, and stigma-free regimes). Our results revealed that stigma is instrumental in the increase in the number of COVID-19 infections. It is also a significant contributor to sustaining COVID-19 in the population and probably in other infectious diseases such as HIV/AIDS and sexually transmitted diseases. The results obtained can influence policy directions with respect to stigma and its impact on the transmission dynamics of diseases.

Keywords

• COVID-19
• stigma
• modelling
• global stability
• basic reproduction number
• sensitivity analysis