Pixel-Level Quantification of Damage and Recovery Caused by the Russia–Ukraine Conflict Based on Nighttime Light Imagery

Abstract

Global regional conflicts are on the rise, threatening both local and global stability and development. This article used monthly and daily nighttime light (NTL) imagery from December 2021 to April 2022 to analyze NTL dynamics during the initial period of the Russia–Ukraine conflict at the national and subnational (oblast and city) levels. In addition, a novel method was proposed to quantify the direct impact of the conflict at the pixel level. In this study, a new conflict effect index (CEI) was constructed to distinguish conflict-damaged area (CDA) and conflict-recovered area (CRA) and to quantify the direct damage and subsequent recovery caused by the conflict. The results indicate that the outbreak of the conflict led to a significant decrease in NTL intensity of about 56% across Ukraine. The pixel-level CEI indicated that the onset of the conflict had a broad impact across Ukraine, with the affected area shrinking as the conflict progressed. Damaged areas accounted for 12% of Ukraine at the start of the conflict, but decreased at an average rate of 2963.25 km2/day over the following week, while the size of recovered areas peaked at 9258.75 km2 during the conflict, but decreased to a low of 3750 km2. The maximum rate of change in the area of the CDA and CRA was −67% and 135%, respectively. The study demonstrates that NTL data can capture the direct destruction of conflict and help to support humanitarian relief and postdisaster reconstruction efforts.

Keywords

• Centroid shift model
• conflict effect index (CEI)
• conflict-damaged areas (CDAs)
• conflict-recovered areas (CRAs)
• nighttime light (NTL) remote sensing
• Russia–Ukraine conflict