Bullwhip effect reduction map for COVID-19 vaccine supply chain

Abstract

The growing COVID-19 virus pandemic outbreak causes an urgent need to produce its vaccine. Pharmaceutical companies would encounter a massive wave of unforeseen demand for the COVID-19 Vaccine after the vaccine production that could lead to a bullwhip effect in the COVID-19 Vaccine Supply Chain (CVSC). The main objective of this study is to design a cognitive map based on the influential factors on the Bullwhip Effect Reduction (BER) of CVSC. Hence, in the first step, the affecting factors on the BER of CVSC are identified and ranked based on their importance from the pharmaceutical experts using the AHP technique. In the second step, 13 out of 18 identified factors are considered for further analyzing and understanding their relationship by Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping (FCM) technique. Furthermore, three different forward scenarios and three backward scenarios are carefully constructed to find the optimal solution for BER on pharmaceutical organizations. The obtained results show that the flexibility factor is the starting point of the backward scenario, which reduces the bullwhip effect in CVSC. Beside, by improving the inventory management and reliability factor, it would be effectively possible to control the lead-time factor and consequently, overcome the bullwhip effect in CVSC.

Keywords

• Bullwhip effect
• COVID-19 vaccine
• Supply chain
• Fuzzy cognitive map