RICE PRICE VOLATILITY IN EAST JAVA

Abstract

The purpose of the research is analyzing the volatility and volatility spillover of monthly price of paddy at the level of farmers and consumers in 2010-2016. ARCH/GARCH used to analyze volatility and GARCH BEKK-model is used to analyze the volatility spillover. The results of the analysis show that price volatility at the farmer level is very high (extremely high volatility), price volatility at the consumer level is low (low volatility), and volatility spillover does not occur between the farmers and the consumers market. The need to guarantee an effective floor price as well as information disclosure related to the market commodity prices so that the pattern of prices transmission among interrelated markets can be symmetrical.

Keywords

• Price
• volatility
• rice
• market