Foot and Mouth Disease atmospheric dispersion system

Abstract

A decision support system to aid in the risk evaluation of airborne animal diseases was developed for Ireland. The system's primary objective is to assist in risk evaluation of the airborne spread of Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD). The operational system was developed by Met Éireann – the Irish Meteorological Service and CVERA (Centre for Veterinary Epidemiology and Risk Analysis), in co-operation with NOAA-ARL (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration – Air Resources Laboratory) and ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). The infrastructure largely relies on the HYSPLIT dispersion model driven by both ECMWF meteorological forecasts for longer range simulations, and HARMONIE-AROME meteorological forecasts, a high resolution local area meteorological model, ideal for shorter range national emissions. Following on from previous work by the Bureau of Meteorology, Australia as well as the Australian Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry, further modifications were made to the HYSPLIT source code to improve the model's characterisation of the Foot and Mouth Disease virus. FMD is a highly infectious disease among cloven hoofed animals that can transmit via airborne means. Biological characteristics related to temperature, humidity, lifespan as well as atmospheric washout were all incorporated either through new or existing functionality of the dispersion model. Combining the model dispersion capabilities of HYSPLIT with a virus emission model and GIS mapping software with farmland zoning, the disease dispersion system becomes a powerful analysis and decision support tool. This airborne animal disease atmospheric dispersion system helps improve emergency preparedness, as well as aid confinement and eradication strategies for relevant Irish authorities, during a disease outbreak.