Probabilistic Modelling of System Capabilities in Operations

Abstract

We present a probabilistic method for simplifying the complexities in evaluating high-level capabilities. The method is demonstrated by using questionnaire data from a technology forecasting project. Our model defines capability as the probability of a successful operation. The model maps the actual observable capabilities to system capabilities. These theoretical quantities are used in calculating observable capability values for system combinations that are not directly evaluated as explanatory variables in the model. From the users’ point of view, the method is easy to use because the number of evaluated parameter values is minimal compared with many other methods. The model is most suited to applications where the resilience and effectiveness of systems are central factors in design and operations. Resilience is achieved by using alternative systems that produce similar capabilities. We study the limited use of alternative systems and their capabilities. We present experiments of model variations and discuss how to perform the model’s built-in consistency checks. The proposed method can be used in various applications such as comparing military system capabilities, technological investments, medical treatments and public education. Our method can add a novel view for understanding and identifying interrelations between systems’ operations.

Keywords

• probabilistic modelling
• capability area
• system capability
• military utility
• trade-off analysis
• operation success