NextGenerationEU and the European Semester: Comparing National Plans and Country‐Specific Recommendations

Abstract

This article examines the main features of the Recovery and Resilience Plans (RRPs) that member states have presented to access NextGenerationEU (NGEU) funds, and it explores the relationship between NGEU and the European Semester. Relying on a dataset collected for this purpose, which coded all RRPs and all recommendations received by the member states in the years preceding NGEU, we explore quantitatively the variation in the countries’ resource allocation and reform agendas and the congruence between RRPs and the recommendations issued in the European Semester. Our analysis reveals three key findings. First, substantial variation exists across member states, reflecting the diverse economic and political contexts shaped by a decade of crises. Second, by disaggregating RRPs into the six policy pillars indicated by the Commission, we show differences in the member states’ patterns of intervention. Third, we offer insights into the extent to which member states address the Semester recommendations. The data we present is a relevant tool for understanding NGEU and generating research questions aimed at exploring its nature and its implementation in the years to come.

Keywords

• conditionality
• country‐specific recommendations
• european semester
• nextgenerationeu