Drought Prediction System for Central Europe and Its Validation

Abstract

In recent years, two drought monitoring systems have been developed in the Czech Republic based on the SoilClim and AVISO soil moisture models. The former is run by Mendel University and Global Change Research Institute (CAS), while the latter, by the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute. SoilClim is based more on real soil properties and aimed primarily at agriculture, while AVISO complements the system with more theoretical presumptions about soil, showing, rather, climatological potential. Both soil moisture models were complemented by forecasts on a daily basis, taking meteorological inputs from NWP (Numerical Weather Prediction) models and thus giving short- to mid-range outlooks up to 9 days ahead. Validation of the soil moisture and drought intensity prediction was performed and is presented in this article showing its prediction reliability and potential. In the analysis, we focus mainly on the past year, 2017. The tool has strong predictive power for soil moisture and drought intensity so it is suitable for farmers who need to make decisions about irrigation and production activities. The presented system is fully functional and can be applied in the coming years.

Keywords

• drought prediction
• soil moisture models
• SoilClim model
• AVISO model
• medium range forecast