Stochastic modeling of ground acceleration for eastern Cuba and the city of Santiago de Cuba

Abstract

The southeastern region of Cuba is the most seismically dangerous area of the country because of its close location to the border of the Caribbean plate with the North American plate. This paper presents two possible scenarios of strong earthquakes, located about 30 km south of the city of Santiago de Cuba, in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration (PSA). Acceleration values were calculated for most of the municipalities in the eastern region and for several points in the city of Santiago de Cuba. Two earthquakes of magnitudes 7.0 and 7.3 were modeled, with epicenter in the Oriente fault zone. Necessary parameters were investigated in the calculations such as the stress drop and the attenuation function of the seismic waves. The results indicate significant rock accelerations in the municipalities of Santiago de Cuba and Guamá with values exceeding 180 cm/s2. A shaking map is also obtained for the city of Santiago de Cuba considering the spectral amplification of the soil. The maximum values of spectral acceleration for periods of 0.3 s reach 480 cm/s2.

Keywords

• aceleración pico del terreno
• modelación estocástica
• mapa de sacudida
• aceleración espectral.