A Hybrid Vector Autoregressive Model for Accurate Macroeconomic Forecasting: An Application to the U.S. Economy

Abstract

Forecasting macroeconomic variables is essential to macroeconomics, financial economics, and monetary policy analysis. Due to the high dimensionality of the macroeconomic dataset, it is challenging to forecast efficiently and accurately. Thus, this study provides a comprehensive analysis of predicting macroeconomic variables by comparing various vector autoregressive models followed by different estimation techniques. To address this, this paper proposes a novel hybrid model based on a smoothly clipped absolute deviation estimation method and a vector autoregression model that combats the curse of dimensionality and simultaneously produces reliable forecasts. The proposed hybrid model is applied to the U.S. quarterly macroeconomic data from the first quarter of 1959 to the fourth quarter of 2023, yielding multi-step-ahead forecasts (one-, three-, and six-step ahead). The multi-step-ahead out-of-sample forecast results (root mean square error and mean absolute error) for the considered data suggest that the proposed hybrid model yields a highly accurate and efficient gain. Additionally, it is demonstrated that the proposed models outperform the baseline models. Finally, the authors believe the proposed hybrid model may be expanded to other countries to assess its efficacy and accuracy.

Keywords

• macroeconomic variables
• U.S.
• time series analysis
• financial economics
• multi-step forecasting
• statistical models