Modeling the change in maximum temperature in Zuwara weather station for the period (1961-2099) using SDSM technique

Abstract

The research aims to use climate models to identify how the climate has changed over time in the Zuwara region of Libya, especially the change in the maximum temperature during the twenty-first century. It is based on the technique of the Statistical Downscaling Model “SDSM”, where it will depend on the maximum temperature data of a weather station, and Zuwara for the period from (1961-1990), and forecasting the monthly, quarterly and annual rate of future increase or decrease during the period (2019-2099) ac-cording to the two climate change scenarios, which are approved by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change The (IPCC) in a report known as Special Report Emissions Scenarios (SRES) in 2000 to make projections of the climate and the environment based on the amount of greenhouse gas emissions. The results proved that the annual average maximum temperature in the Zuwara region will take an upward trend during the modelling periods compared to the base period (1961-1990). This is consistent with all IPCC scenarios, especially during the second period (2046-2072) with an increase of 1.3°C over the base period, and this rate maintains its trend of increasing by about 1°C during the period (2073-2099). The results also indicated an increase in the average maximum seasonal temperature according to the two scenarios H3A2a and H3B2a during the winter season in the second period (2046-2072) at a rate of 8°C. In the spring, the rate of change will reach 2°C. It is expected that the summer will witness a decrease in the maximum average temperature by 5°C, and the same will be the case in the autumn by a rate of 3.3°C in the second period compared to the base period, which threatens the inability of the countries of the world to control and mitigate emissions of greenhouse gases.

Keywords

• climate change
• maximum temperature
• climate model
• climate scenarios
• statistical minimization