BMC Surgery (Jun 2024)
Development of a prediction nomogram for 1-month mortality in neonates with congenital diaphragmatic hernia
Abstract
Abstract Objectives Although many prognostic factors in neonates with congenital diaphragmatic hernia (CDH) have been described, no consensus thus far has been reached on which and how many factors are involved. The aim of this study is to analyze the association of multiple prenatal and postnatal factors with 1-month mortality of neonates with CDH and to construct a nomogram prediction model based on significant factors. Methods A retrospective analysis of neonates with CDH at our center from 2013 to 2022 was conducted. The primary outcome was 1-month mortality. All study variables were obtained either prenatally or on the first day of life. Risk for 1-month mortality of CDH was quantified by odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) in multivariable logistic regression models. Results After graded multivariable adjustment, six factors were found to be independently and consistently associated with the significant risk of 1-month mortality in neonates with CDH, including gestational age of prenatal diagnosis (OR, 95% CI, P value: 0.845, 0.772 to 0.925, < 0.001), observed-to-expected lung-to-head ratio (0.907, 0.873 to 0.943, < 0.001), liver herniation (3.226, 1.361 to 7.648, 0.008), severity of pulmonary hypertension (6.170, 2.678 to 14.217, < 0.001), diameter of defect (1.560, 1.084 to 2.245, 0.017), and oxygen index (6.298, 3.383 to 11.724, < 0.001). Based on six significant factors identified, a nomogram model was constructed to predict the risk for 1-month mortality in neonates with CDH, and this model had decent prediction accuracy as reflected by the C-index of 94.42%. Conclusions Our findings provide evidence for the association of six preoperational and intraoperative factors with the risk of 1-month mortality in neonates with CDH, and this association was reinforced in a nomogram model.
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