Corrosion Predictive Model in Hot-Dip Galvanized Steel Buried in Soil

Abstract

Corrosion is one of the main concerns in the field of structural engineering due to its effect on steel buried in soil. Currently, there is no clearly established method that allows its calculation with precision and ensures the durability of this type of structures. Qualitative methods are commonly used rather than quantitative methods. The objective of this research is the development of a multivariate quantitative predictive model for estimating the loss of thickness that will occur in buried hot-dip galvanized steel as a function of time. The technique used in the modelling is the Adaptive Regression of Multivariate Splines (MARS). The main drawback of this kind of studies is the lack of data since it is not possible to have a priori the corrosive behaviour that the buried material will have as a function of time. To solve this issue, a solid and reliable database was built from the analysis and treatment of the existing literature and with the results obtained from a predictive model to estimate the thickness loss of ungalvanized steel. The input variables of the model are 5 characteristics of the soil, the useful life of the structure, and the loss of corroded ungalvanized steel in the soil. This last data is the output variable of another previous predictive model to estimate the loss of thickness of bare steel in a soil. The objective variable of the model is the loss of thickness that hot-dip galvanized steel will experience buried in the ground and expressed in g/m2. To evaluate the performance and applicability of the proposed model, the statistical metrics RMSE, R2, MAE, and RAE and the graphs of standardized residuals were used. The results indicated that the model offers a very high prediction performance. Specifically, the mean square error was 290.6 g/m2 (range of the objective variable is from 51.787 g/m2 to 5950.5 g/m2), R2 was 0.96, and from a relative error of 0.14, the success of the estimate was 100%. Therefore, the use of the proposed predictive model optimizes the relationship between the amount of hot-dip galvanized steel and the useful life of the buried metal structure.