Are Current Accounts of Asian Economies Mean-reverting?: Nonlinear Unit Root Test Approach

Abstract

This paper tests the mean reverting property of current account in the financial crisis-affected 5 counties of southeast Asia using nonlinear unit root tests of Park and shintani(2004). Our approach is based on the idea that a conventional unit root test has lower power in detecting the nonlinear mean reverting behavior if the current account follows a nonlinear mean reversion process. We obtained following empirical results. First, for the pre-crisis period (1981Q1-1996Q4), the current accounts of Indonesia, Malaysia and Philippines are mean-reverting but those of Korea and Thailand are not mean-reverting. Second, for the full sample period (1981Q1-2003Q4), the ADF test fails to reject the unit root of the current account in all countries except Philippines. However, unit root is rejected in favor of nonlinear mean reversion except Thailand. This nonlinear unit root test result implies that crisis-affected Asian countries except Thailand have sustainable paths of current accounts. Third, when the current accounts of East Asian countries are nonlinear mean-reverting, the mean reverting process can be well described by the ESTAR model, instead of the DTAR or DLSTAR model. The nonlinear unit root test results imply smooth nonlinear mean-reversion behaviors of East Asian current accounts. Finally, the shape of estimated impulse response functions becomes steeper as the size of shock increases, which is the very characteristic of the nonlinear process.

Keywords

• Current Account
• Solvency
• Nonlinear Unit Root Test
• Asian Economies