THE INFLUENCES OF INFLATION ON THE MONETARY POLICY INTEREST

Abstract

In the context of sovereign debt crisis in Europe, a crisis entirely felt also in the direct relation between credit institutions, the National Bank of Romania (NBR) adopted a monetary policy strategy meant to determine the reinforcement of its image, by initiating in the autumn of 2011 a new series of reduction of the monetary policy interest rate and implicitly the appropriate resizing of liquidity conditions. By increasing the role of liquidity adjustment, the European Central Bank (ECB) succeeded to determine in the money market the decrease of interbank rate interests under the interest rate level of monetary policy. The direct inflation targeting strategy used by the European Central Bank in applying its monetary policy has the first criterion of implementation the expression of inflation target in terms of „headline inflation” (consumer price index - CPI) given that the economic market in Romania is familiar with this indicator. Also, the main criterion considered by the investment segment of the market to achieve capital infusions in economic transactions is represented by the consumer price index, this one ensuring the necessary transparency related to the effects of inflation phenomenon. A strong argument supporting the use of consumer price index in monetary policy is represented by its upward flexibility towards the limited effectiveness of monetary aggregates in sizing inflationary anticipations. The downward slope of inflation phenomenon, in whose depreciation the evolution of consumer price index, whose positive trend surprised the European Central Bank, played a significant role, determined adjustments in the monetary policy strategy of the National Bank of Romania and at the same time the achievement of the inflationary target proposed with a direct effect on the monetary policy interest rate. The same measure to reduce the key interest rate is outlined in the monetary policy of the European Central Bank and it is mainly due to the decrease of inflation phenomenon, although at the end of 2011 important quantities of liquidities were introduced in the financial system. It remains to be analysed to what extent the inflation phenomenon will be possible to manage under the conditions of the renewal of economic instability in the euro area and to which direction this aspect will influence the monetary policy of the National Bank of Romania.

Keywords

• inflation, monetary policy, interest rate, monetary policy strategy, CPI