A Framework for Project Risk Assessment in Dynamic Networks: A Case Study of Oil and Gas Megaproject Construction

Abstract

Conventionally, risk assessment methods suffer from ignoring the dynamic nature of risks. Therefore, this study demonstrates an interactive approach to risks and prioritizes risks based on their overall cyclic events acting on the attainment of the goals of a project during its life cycle. Hence, the risks of the project of gas condensate storage tank construction (G.C.S.T.C) are first identified and evaluated by using a fuzzy inference system (F.I.S); then, the created risk network is simulated over the project life cycle by using the results of the F.I.S; finally, the impacts of the risks are assessed by applying purposeful indicators. Based on the results, the risk of the increase in the economic sanctions most significantly impacts on achieving the project goals, and lack of the governmental support, the variation of the fiscal governmental policy, high inflation rates, and sharp changes in the exchange rate are considered as the important risks. The results also demonstrated that these five risks improved the attainment of the project goals by more than 55%, while the total improvement on the 21 other risks enhanced the achievement of the project goals by less than 45%.

Keywords

• Risk identification
• fuzzy inference system
• system dynamics
• oil and gas projects