Influence of Agricultural Activity on the Surface Climate of New Delta of Egypt Using the RegCM4

Abstract

Land-use changes (e.g., transition from desert to crop) can induce considerable influence on the surface climate and terrestrial water cycle (represented by potential evapotranspiration; PET). Additionally, regional climate models (e.g., RegCM4) can be useful tools for exploring regional changes associated with land-use. In the present, the influence of a cropped area (of the New Delta of Egypt) on the temperature extremes (Tmax and Tmin), and potential evapotranspiration (PET) was examined using a regional climate model (RegCM4). The MPI-ESM-MR was used as atmospheric forcing to drive the RegCM4 over the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) with 50 km grid spacing and then nested over Egypt with 20 km grid spacing. To consider the effect of the cropped area, two experiments were conducted: the first one is occupied with desert (CTRL) and the other one considers the cropped area (EXP). The two experiments were integrated from 1980 to 2100 considering the moderate future scenario representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP45). The results showed that the cropped area induces a reduction in both Tmax and Tmin (by 0.5–2 °C) as well as a reduction in PET (by 5 mm month−1). In summary, RegCM4 can be considered a useful tool to examine the possible effects associated with cropped areas. Additionally, considering other atmospheric forcing is important in order to account for the uncertainty associated with the lateral boundary condition.

Keywords

• Egypt
• crop
• future scenario
• New-Delta
• potential evapotranspiration