Application of Bias Correction to Improve WRF Ensemble Wind Speed Forecast

Abstract

Surface wind speed forecast from an operational WRF Ensemble Prediction System (WEPS) was verified, and the system-bias representations of the WEPS were investigated. Results indicated that error characteristics of the ensemble 10-m wind speed forecast were diurnally variated and clustered with the usage of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme. To correct the error characteristics of the ensemble wind speed forecast, three system-bias representations with decaying average algorithms were studied. One of the three system-bias representations is represented by the forecast error of the ensemble mean (BC01), and others are assembled from each PBC group (BC03) as well as an independent member (BC20). System bias was calculated daily and updated within a 5-month duration, and the verification was conducted in the last month, including 316 gauges around Taiwan. Results show that the mean of the calibrated ensemble (BC03) was significantly improved as the calibrated ensemble (BC20), but both demonstrated insufficient ensemble spread. However, the calibrated ensemble, BC01, with the best dispersion relation could be extracted as a more valuable deterministic forecast via the probability matched mean method (PMM).

Keywords

• ensemble prediction system
• wind speed
• bias correction
• bias adjustment
• decaying average
• probability matched mean