Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (Jul 2015)
MACC regional multi-model ensemble simulations of birch pollen dispersion in Europe
- M. Sofiev,
- U. Berger,
- M. Prank,
- J. Vira,
- J. Arteta,
- J. Belmonte,
- K.-C. Bergmann,
- F. Chéroux,
- H. Elbern,
- E. Friese,
- C. Galan,
- R. Gehrig,
- D. Khvorostyanov,
- R. Kranenburg,
- U. Kumar,
- V. Marécal,
- F. Meleux,
- L. Menut,
- A.-M. Pessi,
- L. Robertson,
- O. Ritenberga,
- V. Rodinkova,
- A. Saarto,
- A. Segers,
- E. Severova,
- I. Sauliene,
- P. Siljamo,
- B. M. Steensen,
- E. Teinemaa,
- M. Thibaudon,
- V.-H. Peuch
Affiliations
- M. Sofiev
- Finnish Meteorological Institute, Erik Palmenin Aukio 1, Helsinki, Finland
- U. Berger
- Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
- M. Prank
- Finnish Meteorological Institute, Erik Palmenin Aukio 1, Helsinki, Finland
- J. Vira
- Finnish Meteorological Institute, Erik Palmenin Aukio 1, Helsinki, Finland
- J. Arteta
- Groupe d'Étude de l'Atmosphère Méréorologique/Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques, CNRS-Météo-France, Toulouse, France
- J. Belmonte
- Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
- K.-C. Bergmann
- Foundation German Pollen Information Service, Berlin, Germany
- F. Chéroux
- Groupe d'Étude de l'Atmosphère Méréorologique/Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques, CNRS-Météo-France, Toulouse, France
- H. Elbern
- Rhenish Institute for Environmental Research at the University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany
- E. Friese
- Rhenish Institute for Environmental Research at the University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany
- C. Galan
- University of Cordoba, Cordoba, Spain
- R. Gehrig
- Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology Meteo Swiss, Zurich, Switzerland
- D. Khvorostyanov
- Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, CNRS, Ecole Polytechnique, Ecole Normale Supérieure, Université P.M. Curie, Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussées, Palaiseau, France
- R. Kranenburg
- TNO, Utrecht, the Netherlands
- U. Kumar
- Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt, the Netherlands
- V. Marécal
- Groupe d'Étude de l'Atmosphère Méréorologique/Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques, CNRS-Météo-France, Toulouse, France
- F. Meleux
- INERIS, Institut National de l'Environnement Industriel et des Risques, Verneuil en Halatte, France
- L. Menut
- Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, CNRS, Ecole Polytechnique, Ecole Normale Supérieure, Université P.M. Curie, Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussées, Palaiseau, France
- A.-M. Pessi
- University of Turku, Turku, Finland
- L. Robertson
- SMHI, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden
- O. Ritenberga
- University of Latvia, Riga, Latvia
- V. Rodinkova
- VNMU, Vinnitsa National Medical University, Vinnitsa, Ukraine
- A. Saarto
- University of Turku, Turku, Finland
- A. Segers
- TNO, Utrecht, the Netherlands
- E. Severova
- Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia
- I. Sauliene
- Siauliai University, Siauliai, Lithuania
- P. Siljamo
- Finnish Meteorological Institute, Erik Palmenin Aukio 1, Helsinki, Finland
- B. M. Steensen
- MET Norway, Oslo, Norway
- E. Teinemaa
- Estonian Environmental Research Centre, Tallinn, Estonia
- M. Thibaudon
- RNSA, Brussieu, France
- V.-H. Peuch
- European Centre of Medium-Range Weather Forecast, Reading, UK
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-8115-2015
- Journal volume & issue
-
Vol. 15,
no. 14
pp. 8115 – 8130
Abstract
This paper presents the first ensemble modelling experiment in relation to birch pollen in Europe. The seven-model European ensemble of MACC-ENS, tested in trial simulations over the flowering season of 2010, was run through the flowering season of 2013. The simulations have been compared with observations in 11 countries, all members of the European Aeroallergen Network, for both individual models and the ensemble mean and median. It is shown that the models successfully reproduced the timing of the very late season of 2013, generally within a couple of days from the observed start of the season. The end of the season was generally predicted later than observed, by 5 days or more, which is a known feature of the source term used in the study. Absolute pollen concentrations during the season were somewhat underestimated in the southern part of the birch habitat. In the northern part of Europe, a record-low pollen season was strongly overestimated by all models. The median of the multi-model ensemble demonstrated robust performance, successfully eliminating the impact of outliers, which was particularly useful since for most models this was the first experience of pollen forecasting.