Sex-specific performance of the ASCVD pooled cohort equation risk calculator as a correlate of coronary artery calcium in Kampala, Uganda

Abstract

Introduction: The prevalence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) is rising in Sub-Saharan Africa, but it is not known whether current risk assessment tools predict coronary atherosclerosis in the region. Furthermore, sex-specific performance and interaction with HIV serostatus has not been well studied. Methods: This cross-sectional study compared ASCVD risk scores and detectable coronary artery calcium (CAC>0) by sex in Kampala, Uganda (n = 200). The cohort was enriched for persons living with HIV, and all participants had at least one CVD risk factor. We fit log binomial regression models and constructed ROC curves to assess the correlation between ASCVD scores and CAC>0. Results: The mean age was 56. 62% were female and 50% of both men and women were living with HIV. The median 10-year ASCVD risk score was significantly higher in men (11.0%, IQR 7.6–19.4%) than in women (5.1%, IQR 3.2–8.7%), although the prevalence of CAC>0 was similar (8.1 vs 10.5%, p = 0.63). Each 10% increase in ASCVD risk was associated with increased risk of CAC>0 in men (PR 1.59, 95% CI 1.00–2.55, p = 0.05) but not women (PR 1.15, 95% CI 0.44–3.00, p = 0.77). ROC curves demonstrated an AUC of 0.57 for women vs 0.70 for men. Adjustment for HIV serostatus improved the predictive value of ASCVD in women only (AUC 0.78, p = 0.02). Conclusions: ASCVD risk score did not correlate with the presence of CAC in women. When HIV status was added to the ASCVD risk score, correlation with CAC was improved in women but not in men.

Keywords

• Coronary artery disease
• Coronary artery calcium
• ASCVD pooled Cohort equations (PCE)
• Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)
• Sex
• Uganda