Natural Movement and Migration of the Population of the Central Black Earth Region of Russia in the Context of Urbanisation and Conservative Modernisation of the 20th–21st Centuries

Abstract

This paper aims to present a comprehensive study of the natural and migration movement of the rural population of Russia over several periods of the twentieth and early twenty-first centuries. The authors proceed from the premise that it is necessary to consider not only the decline of Russia’s rural population but also its movement. The article refers to the data of general censuses and vital records of the population at the regional, district, and settlement levels in one of the most successful agrarian regions by Russian standards, i.e. the Central Black Earth Region. The authors process the information from the sources employing various quantitative methods, including modeling demographic processes of the past, which helps verify the information of official documents. It is concluded that the idea of the general “extinction” of the Russian countryside is oversimplified. Historical data of the Central Black Earth Region testify to the constantly changing, different directions of demographic processes at the level of individual regions, districts, and settlements. Backsliding due to the process of depopulation, conservative demographic modernisation, and especially the transfer of urban dwellers back to rural areas contribute to the preservation of “islands of stability”. There are still dozens of districts and hundreds of settlements in the Central Black Earth Region characterised by natural growth and migration influx. The authors argue that a population which is excessive in terms of the needs of modern agriculture will continue to migrate. At the same time, based on the data of last decades, it is suggested that a certain number of people will be staying in the countryside as well as relocating there — those preferring a rural lifestyle in general or seeking to survive there in times of crisis. The reverse migration to rural areas observed during critical periods made it possible and continues to amortise the continuous decline of the rural population.

Keywords

• историческая демография
• сельское население
• центральное черноземье
• статистика
• количественные методы