Pre-Vaccine Positivity of SARS-CoV-2 Antibodies in Alberta, Canada during the First Two Waves of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Abstract

ABSTRACT We systematically evaluated SARS-CoV-2 IgG positivity in a provincial cohort to understand the local epidemiology of COVID-19 and support evidence-based public health decisions. Residual blood samples were collected for serology testing over 5-day periods monthly from June 2020 to January 2021 from six clinical laboratories across the province of Alberta, Canada. A total of 93,993 individual patient samples were tested with a SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid antibody assay with positives confirmed using a spike antibody assay. Population-adjusted SARS-CoV-2 IgG seropositivity was 0.92% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.91 to 0.93%) shortly after the first COVID-19 wave in June 2020, increasing to 4.63% (95% CI: 4.61 to 4.65%) amid the second wave in January 2021. There was no significant difference in seropositivity between males and females (1.39% versus 1.27%; P = 0.11). Ages with highest seropositivity were 0 to 9 years (2.71%, 95% CI: 1.64 to 3.78%) followed by 20 to 29 years (1.58%, 95% CI: 1.12 to 2.04%), with the lowest rates seen in those aged 70 to 79 (0.79%, 95% CI: 0.65 to 0.93%) and >80 (0.78%, 95% CI: 0.60 to 0.97%). Compared to the seronegative group, seropositive patients inhabited geographic areas with lower household income ($87,500 versus $97,500; P < 0.001), larger household sizes, and higher proportions of people with education levels of secondary school or lower, as well as immigrants and visible minority groups (all P < 0.05). A total of 53.7% of seropositive individuals were potentially undetected cases with no prior positive COVID-19 nucleic acid test (NAAT). Antibodies were detectable in some patients up to 9 months post positive NAAT result. This seroprevalence study will continue to inform public health decisions by identifying at-risk demographics and geographical areas. IMPORTANCE Using SARS-CoV-2 serology testing, we assessed the proportion of people in Alberta, Canada (population 4.4 million) positive for COVID-19 antibodies, indicating previous infection, during the first two waves of the COVID-19 pandemic (prior to vaccination programs). Linking these results with sociodemographic population data provides valuable information as to which groups of the population are more likely to have been infected with the SARS-CoV-2 virus to help facilitate public health decision-making and interventions. We also compared seropositivity data with previous COVID-19 molecular testing results. Absence of antibody and molecular testing were highly correlated (95% negative concordance). Positive antibody correlation with a previous positive molecular test was low, suggesting the possibility of mild/asymptomatic infection or other reasons leading individuals from seeking medical attention. Our data highlight that the true estimate of population prevalence of COVID-19 is likely best informed by combining data from both serology and molecular testing.

Keywords

• SARS-CoV-2
• antibody
• immunology
• nucleocapsid protein
• serology
• seroprevalence