Forecasting the Ocean's Optical Environment Using the BioCast System

Abstract

The Bio-Optical Forecasting (BioCast) system is a model that provides the US Navy with short-term forecasts of the ocean's optical environment. The forecasts are required to support a broad spectrum of naval operations, including mine countermeasure, anti-submarine, and expeditionary warfare operations. The BioCast system works by treating any geo-referenced surface ocean optical property provided via the US Navy's satellite data processing systems as a prognostic state variable. BioCast will then ingest operational ocean model velocity forecasts and calculate the three-dimensional optical property (pseudo-tracer) transport. BioCast verification statistics generated via forecast comparison to "next-day" satellite images show superior performance over 24-hour persistence of composite satellite data. Future operational modifications to BioCast, such as complex internal transformation submodels, must demonstrate superior performance to the established benchmark metrics and/or persistence over the operational forecast time horizon. Future BioCast applications will expand to include an interface with three-dimensional system performance simulation techniques that will predict how specific US Navy sensors will perform in the ocean's optical environment.

Keywords

• BioCast
• bio-optical forecasting
• ocean optics
• naval operational support