Development and validation of a 18F-FDG PET/CT radiomics nomogram for predicting progression free survival in locally advanced cervical cancer: a retrospective multicenter study

Abstract

Abstract Background The existing staging system cannot meet the needs of accurate survival prediction. Accurate survival prediction for locally advanced cervical cancer (LACC) patients who have undergone concurrent radiochemotherapy (CCRT) can improve their treatment management. Thus, this present study aimed to develop and validate radiomics models based on pretreatment 18Fluorine-fluorodeoxyglucose (18F-FDG) positron emission tomography (PET)-computed tomography (CT) images to accurately predict the prognosis in patients. Methods The data from 190 consecutive patients with LACC who underwent pretreatment 18F-FDG PET-CT and CCRT at two cancer hospitals were retrospectively analyzed; 176 patients from the same hospital were randomly divided into training (n = 117) and internal validation (n = 50) cohorts. Clinical features were selected from the training cohort using univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards models; radiomic features were extracted from PET and CT images and filtered using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator and Cox proportional hazard regression. Three prediction models and a nomogram were then constructed using the previously selected clinical, CT and PET radiomics features. The external validation cohort that was used to validate the models included 23 patients with LACC from another cancer hospital. The predictive performance of the constructed models was evaluated using receiver operator characteristic curves, Kaplan Meier curves, and a nomogram. Results In total, one clinical, one PET radiomics, and three CT radiomics features were significantly associated with progression-free survival in the training cohort. Across all three cohorts, the combined model displayed better efficacy and clinical utility than any of these parameters alone in predicting 3-year progression-free survival (area under curve: 0.661, 0.718, and 0.775; C-index: 0.698, 0.724, and 0.705, respectively) and 5-year progression-free survival (area under curve: 0.661, 0.711, and 0.767; C-index, 0.698, 0.722, and 0.676, respectively). On subsequent construction of a nomogram, the calibration curve demonstrated good agreement between actually observed and nomogram-predicted values. Conclusions In this study, a clinico-radiomics prediction model was developed and successfully validated using an independent external validation cohort. The nomogram incorporating radiomics and clinical features could be a useful clinical tool for the early and accurate assessment of long-term prognosis in patients with LACC patients who undergo concurrent chemoradiotherapy.

Keywords

• Locally advanced cervical cancer
• 18F-FDG PET/CT
• Radiomics
• Prediction model
• Machine learning
• Progression free survival