The persistence of simple host-parasitoid systems with prolonged diapause

Abstract

Many univoltine insect populations can spread adult emergence in time through a phenomena known as prolonged diapause. With the exception of a few works, the dynamic consequences of prolonged diapause in coupled host parasitoid populations remains an open question. We modified the classical Nicholson-Bailey model to consider synchronic prolonged diapause in a model lacking other stabilising features. Our results add evidence to past work in that they show that this phenomena may be of little importance to the stability of hostparasitoid systems. However, the model predicts long-term persistence through abrupt oscillations. This feature may in itself help explain the population behaviour of many insect populations exhibiting outbreak dynamics and sets the emphasis on the importance of looking into transient dynamics.