Early Stage Identification of COVID-19 Patients in Mexico Using Machine Learning: A Case Study for the Tijuana General Hospital

Abstract

Background: The current pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2 is an acute illness of global concern. SARS-CoV-2 is an infectious disease caused by a recently discovered coronavirus. Most people who get sick from COVID-19 experience either mild, moderate, or severe symptoms. In order to help make quick decisions regarding treatment and isolation needs, it is useful to determine which significant variables indicate infection cases in the population served by the Tijuana General Hospital (Hospital General de Tijuana). An Artificial Intelligence (Machine Learning) mathematical model was developed in order to identify early-stage significant variables in COVID-19 patients. Methods: The individual characteristics of the study subjects included age, gender, age group, symptoms, comorbidities, diagnosis, and outcomes. A mathematical model that uses supervised learning algorithms, allowing the identification of the significant variables that predict the diagnosis of COVID-19 with high precision, was developed. Results: Automatic algorithms were used to analyze the data: for Systolic Arterial Hypertension (SAH), the Logistic Regression algorithm showed results of 91.0% in area under ROC (AUC), 80% accuracy (CA), 80% F1 and 80% Recall, and 80.1% precision for the selected variables, while for Diabetes Mellitus (DM) with the Logistic Regression algorithm it obtained 91.2% AUC, 89.2% accuracy, 88.8% F1, 89.7% precision, and 89.2% recall for the selected variables. The neural network algorithm showed better results for patients with Obesity, obtaining 83.4% AUC, 91.4% accuracy, 89.9% F1, 90.6% precision, and 91.4% recall. Conclusions: Statistical analyses revealed that the significant predictive symptoms in patients with SAH, DM, and Obesity were more substantial in fatigue and myalgias/arthralgias. In contrast, the third dominant symptom in people with SAH and DM was odynophagia.

Keywords

• machine learning
• COVID-19
• identification