Yeni Bir Yaklaşımla Termal Konfor Koşullarının Günümüzde ve Gelecek İklim Koşullarındaki Mekânsal Dağılışının Analizi: Bolu Kenti Örneği

Abstract

Observed and projected climatic changes will significantly affect urban areas where more than half of the world population lives. Predictions for the future climate conditions were made for the spatial distribution of thermal comfort conditions and climate projections determined in the hot period of the city of Bolu between May and September of the year. In the study, the measurement data of the period 1991 – 2020 and the data of the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios were used. The Physiological Equivalent Temperature (PET) index obtained from the RayMan model was used. Geographic Information Systems were used in the spatial distribution of thermal comfort conditions, taking into account the landuse variables. According to analysis, “slightly warm” and “hot” stresses were determined today. According to the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, "very hot" range (extreme heat stresses) will be effective in the future, the urban heat island will expand and Bolu will be exposed to extreme heat stress, threatening public health.

Keywords

• bolu
• urban climate
• thermal comfort
• rcp climate scenarios
• climate change