Empirical comparison of four baseline covariate adjustment methods in analysis of continuous outcomes in randomized controlled trials

Abstract

Shiyuan Zhang,1 James Paul,2 Manyat Nantha-Aree,2 Norman Buckley,2 Uswa Shahzad,2 Ji Cheng,2 Justin DeBeer,5 Mitchell Winemaker,5 David Wismer,5 Dinshaw Punthakee,5 Victoria Avram,5 Lehana Thabane1–41Department of Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, 2Department of Anesthesia, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, Canada; 3Biostatistics Unit/Centre for Evaluation of Medicines, St Joseph's Healthcare - Hamilton, Hamilton, ON, Canada; 4Population Health Research Institute, Hamilton Health Science/McMaster University, 5Department of Surgery, Division of Orthopaedics, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, CanadaBackground: Although seemingly straightforward, the statistical comparison of a continuous variable in a randomized controlled trial that has both a pre- and posttreatment score presents an interesting challenge for trialists. We present here empirical application of four statistical methods (posttreatment scores with analysis of variance, analysis of covariance, change in scores, and percent change in scores), using data from a randomized controlled trial of postoperative pain in patients following total joint arthroplasty (the Morphine COnsumption in Joint Replacement Patients, With and Without GaBapentin Treatment, a RandomIzed ControlLEd Study [MOBILE] trials).Methods: Analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) was used to adjust for baseline measures and to provide an unbiased estimate of the mean group difference of the 1-year postoperative knee flexion scores in knee arthroplasty patients. Robustness tests were done by comparing ANCOVA with three comparative methods: the posttreatment scores, change in scores, and percentage change from baseline.Results: All four methods showed similar direction of effect; however, ANCOVA (-3.9; 95% confidence interval [CI]: -9.5, 1.6; P=0.15) and the posttreatment score (-4.3; 95% CI: -9.8, 1.2; P=0.12) method provided the highest precision of estimate compared with the change score (-3.0; 95% CI: -9.9, 3.8; P=0.38) and percent change (–0.019; 95% CI: -0.087, 0.050; P=0.58).Conclusion: ANCOVA, through both simulation and empirical studies, provides the best statistical estimation for analyzing continuous outcomes requiring covariate adjustment. Our empirical findings support the use of ANCOVA as an optimal method in both design and analysis of trials with a continuous primary outcome.Keywords: ANOVA, ANCOVA, change score, knee arthroplasty