GLOBAL WARMING: A Critical View

Abstract

In the last 150 years, the mean global temperature rose about 0,7°C. Thisincrease is being attributed to the enhancement of the greenhouse effect dueanthropic activities, such as fossil fuel and tropical forest burning, that emit CO2– a greenhouse gas, but not the most important one –whose concentrationincreased from 280 ppmv to 380ppmv in the same period. The hypothesis ofanthropogenic global warming was discussed, demonstrating that it does nothave a solid scientific basis and it has been established mainly on results ofclimate computer models (GCM), whose mathematical formulation does notrepresent the physical processes, particularly the hydrological cycle, adequately.The GCM projections into the future, based on hypothetical scenarios, are mereacademic exercises and, thus, their results are unreliable and worthless as faras human welfare and planning are concerned. It is argued that man’s influenceon climate, if it exists, is very small, undistinguishable of its large naturalvariability, therefore, undetectable with present methods. Considering suchvariability, it is very likely that rather a gradual global cooling will take place inthe next 20 years.