Zhongguo quanke yixue (Apr 2024)
Trend and Forecast Analysis of Premature Mortality Probability by Four Major Non-communicable Diseases in Baise from 2015 to 2021
Abstract
Background The disease burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) among residents in China is relatively severe, which had become an important influencing factor in limiting the increase of healthy life expectancy of the population. Objective To identify the premature mortality of four major NCDs (cancer, cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, diabetes and chronic respiratory diseases) and the achievement of "Health China 2030" goal in Baise from 2015 to 2021, so as to provide reference for the development of prevention and control strategies for NCDs in western poverty-stricken regions. Methods The mortality data registered in the cause of death surveillance system of the Baise Center for Disease Prevention and Control from 2015-2021 was collected, indicators such as mortality and the probability of premature mortality were calculated, Joinpoint 24.0 software was used to describe the trend of change in terms of average annual percentage change (AAPC) and rate. Results The crude mortality of the four major NCDs was 549.06/100 000 (AAPC=0.13%) and the age-standardized mortality was 302.92/100 000 (AAPC=-5.66%) from 2015-2021, with no significant change in any of them (P>0.05). The age-standardized mortality in women showed a significant decrease (AAPC=-1.66%, P=0.046). There was an increasing trend in the crude mortality for cardiovascular disease in the total population, males, and females (AAPC=2.74%, P=0.004; AAPC=2.43%, P=0.013; AAPC=3.17%, P=0.011), and a decreasing trend in the standardized mortality rate for chronic respiratory diseases in men and women (AAPC=-8.66%, P=0.023; AAPC=-8.17%, P=0.027). The probability of premature mortality of the four major NCDs was 15.77%, 26.03% and 10.42% for the total population, men and women, with a decreasing trend from chronic respiratory diseases (AAPC=-6.89%, P=0.012; AAPC=-7.18%, P=0.007; AAPC=-6.94%, P=0.020). The probability of premature mortality from four NCDs in men was about 2.5 times higher than that in women. According to the average growth rate of the probability of premature mortality of the 4 NCDs in Baise City from 2015-2021, the probability of premature mortality of the four major NCDs was projected to be 14.62% in 2030, while the goal of the probability of premature mortality was 13.69%, only the goal of the women, cancer and chronic respiratory diseases is higher than the projected. To achieve the 2030 target, the average rate of decline in the probability of premature death for the four chronic diseases from 2021 to 2030 will need to be increased to 2.63%, with the average rate of decline for men increasing to 2.70%. The probability of early death of diabetes should be paid attention to, its predicted value is lower than the target value and the gap is large, and the decline rate should be increased to 6.76%. Conclusion Crude mortality of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases showed an increasing trend, whereas the mortality and the probability of premature mortality from chronic respiratory diseases showed an obvious decrease. Based on the current average growth rate, it is predicted that Baise City is still far from realizing the target value of "Healthy China 2030", men should be the primary focus group, and the main intervention diseases should be diabetes, cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, so that the average growth rate from 2021 to 2030 can reach -2.63%, to achieve the goal of "Healthy China 2030".
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