Clinical Epidemiology and Global Health (Jan 2021)
The heterogeneous age-mixing model of estimating the covid cases of different local government units in the National Capital Region, Philippines
Abstract
Objectives: The objective of the study is to investigate the effects of transmission control efforts of the Philippine Government through implementation of Enhanced Community Quarantine (ECQ) on curtailing the exponential growth of the Corona Virus (Covid-19). Also, this study provides forecast of transmission rate of Covid-19 incorporating the heterogeneous characteristics of the group of population according to age. Methods: The heterogeneous-mixing model was used to forecast the transmission rate of Covid-19 and effect of Enhanced Community Quarantine in various Local Government Units (LGUs) in the National Capital Region (NCR), Philippines. Results: The result of the study revealed that the mobility of people has significant contribution to the transmission rate of Covid-19. The result of the study revealed that the mobilization of workers, who are exempted in ECQ, would greatly affect the transmission of disease to those who are in the senior citizen group. The increase in the confirmed cases of Covid-19 is associated with the transmission from those workers, who are exempted from ECQ to senior citizens and the young age group. LGUs in the NCR, Philippines will experience a different pattern of peak periods ranging from the third week of April to the last week of May. Conclusions: This study concluded that in order to achieve the containment of the spread of Covid-19 in the Philippines, the government should be stricter in implementation of the ECQ and incorporate the different pattern of transmission of Covid-19 in deciding whether to extend or to lift the ECQ.
