Международная аналитика (Nov 2020)
India’s Rise from a Regional to a Global Power
Abstract
Most economic forecasts made after the trans-Atlantic fi nancial crisis of 2008 – 2009 have suggested that by 2030 China and India will overtake the United States to become the world’s largest and second-largest economies, respectively. This is why India is viewed as a global power, graduating from its regional role. The COVID-19 pandemic and the ongoing “Cold War” between the United States and China could present new challenges and open up new opportunities for India. While dealing with short-term economic and geopolitical challenges, India will continue to carve out its path in its relations with the world that is defi ned by its civilizational inheritance, its core national interests and its economic performance and capabilities. This article discusses why, given India’s focus on its economic development and growth, the country seeks a regional and global economic and security environment that would be conducive to attaining these objectives. The author suggests fi rst, that as a rising power, India has remained committed to multilateralism in both the economic and security fi elds. It has adhered to the discipline of existing multilateral regimes, including in trade, fi nance and nuclear non-proliferation. India has also actively supported a global solution to the challenge of global warming and climate change. Second, that even as India pursues a policy of multi-alignment in a world marked by a multipolar balance of power, the viability of its policy will hinge upon how China responds to India’s rise and its core national security concerns. Finally, that as Big Power rivalries return and a new Cold War may be in the offi ng, India will have to reassess its options given its developmental aspirations. An assertive China seeking hegemonic dominance in Asia could reduce India’s options and encourage it to build new alliances that are aimed at enhancing national security and ensuring a more balanced distribution of power.
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