SHIP COLLISION RISK ASSESSMENT MODEL FOR QINZHOU PORT BASED ON EVENT SEQUENCE DIAGRAM
Wuliu Tian,
Jinfen Zhang,
Beibei Meng,
Zhaobin Gan,
Hong Wan,
Yihong He,
Quandang Ma
Affiliations
Wuliu Tian
Maritime college, Beibu Gulf University , Qinzhou, China Qinzhou Maritime Navigation And Antifouling Key Laboratory, Beibu Gulf University , Qinzhou, China
Jinfen Zhang
National Engineering Research Center for Water Transport Safety, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan, China
Beibei Meng
Maritime college, Beibu Gulf University , Qinzhou, China
Zhaobin Gan
Maritime college, Beibu Gulf University , Qinzhou, China
Hong Wan
Maritime college, Beibu Gulf University , Qinzhou, China
Yihong He
Maritime college, Beibu Gulf University , Qinzhou, China
Quandang Ma
School of Navigation, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan, China National Engineering Research Center for Water Transport Safety, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan, China Hubei Inland Shipping Technology Key Laboratory, Wuhan University of Technolog
Qinzhou Port is one of the most important ports in the “Beibu Gulf” of China. It is also the main hub port of the "21st century maritime silk road" strategy. Based on a basic collision risk assessment approach, an Event Sequence Diagram (ESD) model that explains the four-stage collision avoidance decision-making procedure is proposed from the perspectives of perception, cognition, decision, and execution. Using the historical data derived from collision accident reports from the Qinzhou Port waters from 2013 to 2017, as well as the data elicited from expert knowledge, a quantitative evaluation of probability distributions of different collision failure modes is performed. The results are also compared with relevant results from other types of navigation waters to analyse collision risk level of Qinzhou waters. At the same time, the main failures paths of collision avoidance decision making are identified. The proposed model can provide with an overall collision risk picture from a macro perspective.
