Over-Optimistic Projected Future Wheat Yield Potential in the North China Plain: The Role of Future Climate Extremes
Rui Yang,
Panhong Dai,
Bin Wang,
Tao Jin,
Ke Liu,
Shah Fahad,
Matthew Tom Harrison,
Jianguo Man,
Jiandong Shang,
Holger Meinke,
Deli Liu,
Xiaoyan Wang,
Yunbo Zhang,
Meixue Zhou,
Yingbing Tian,
Haoliang Yan
Affiliations
Rui Yang
Engineering Research Center of Ecology and Agricultural Use of Wetland, College of Agriculture, Yangtze University, Jingzhou 434025, China
Panhong Dai
State Key Laboratory of Cotton Biology, Institute of Cotton Research of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Anyang 455000, China
Bin Wang
New South Wales Department of Primary Industries, Wagga Wagga Agriculture Institute, Wagga Wagga 2650, Australia
Tao Jin
Engineering Research Center of Ecology and Agricultural Use of Wetland, College of Agriculture, Yangtze University, Jingzhou 434025, China
Ke Liu
Tasmanian Institute of Agriculture, University of Tasmania, 16-20 Mooreville Rd, Burnie 7320, Australia
Shah Fahad
Hainan Key Laboratory for Sustainable Utilization of Tropical Bioresource, College of Tropical Crops, Hainan University, Haikou 570228, China
Matthew Tom Harrison
Tasmanian Institute of Agriculture, University of Tasmania, 16-20 Mooreville Rd, Burnie 7320, Australia
Jianguo Man
MARA Key Laboratory of Crop Ecophysiology and Farming System in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River, College of Plant Science and Technology, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan 430070, China
Jiandong Shang
National Supercomputing Center in Zhengzhou, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, China
Holger Meinke
University of Tasmania, Hobart 7001, Australia
Deli Liu
New South Wales Department of Primary Industries, Wagga Wagga Agriculture Institute, Wagga Wagga 2650, Australia
Xiaoyan Wang
Engineering Research Center of Ecology and Agricultural Use of Wetland, College of Agriculture, Yangtze University, Jingzhou 434025, China
Yunbo Zhang
Engineering Research Center of Ecology and Agricultural Use of Wetland, College of Agriculture, Yangtze University, Jingzhou 434025, China
Meixue Zhou
Tasmanian Institute of Agriculture, University of Tasmania, 16-20 Mooreville Rd, Burnie 7320, Australia
Yingbing Tian
Engineering Research Center of Ecology and Agricultural Use of Wetland, College of Agriculture, Yangtze University, Jingzhou 434025, China
Haoliang Yan
State Key Laboratory of Cotton Biology, Institute of Cotton Research of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Anyang 455000, China
Global warming and altered precipitation patterns pose a serious threat to crop production in the North China Plain (NCP). Quantifying the frequency of adverse climate events (e.g., frost, heat and drought) under future climates and assessing how those climatic extreme events would affect yield are important to effectively inform and make science-based adaptation options for agriculture in a changing climate. In this study, we evaluated the effects of heat and frost stress during sensitive phenological stages at four representative sites in the NCP using the APSIM-wheat model. climate data included historical and future climates, the latter being informed by projections from 22 Global Climate Models (GCMs) in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) for the period 2031–2060 (2050s). Our results show that current projections of future wheat yield potential in the North China Plain may be overestimated; after more accurately accounting for the effects of frost and heat stress in the model, yield projections for 2031-60 decreased from 31% to 9%. Clustering of common drought-stress seasonal patterns into key groups revealed that moderate drought stress environments are likely to be alleviated in the future, although the frequency of severe drought-stress environments would remain similar (25%) to that occurring under the current climate. We highlight the importance of mechanistically accounting for temperature stress on crop physiology, enabling more robust projections of crop yields under future the burgeoning climate crisis.
