How Snowfalls Affect the Operation of Taxi Fleets? A Case Study from Harbin, China

Abstract

Taxi network plays an important role in urban passenger transportation. However, its operation is greatly affected by weather, especially by snowfalls in cold region. In this study, we focus on the persistent effect of snowfall on taxi operation and propose an autoregressive distribution lag model (ARDL) to quantitatively analyse it. To support our study, the taxi GPS trajectory data collected in Harbin, China, during 61 days from 1 November to 31 December in 2015 is analysed. First, the daily average order volume (DAOV) is acquired through data sampling and processing. Then, combined with the data of daily snowfall during the 61 days, the ARDL model is constructed. The result shows that the snowfall has a lag effect on taxi operation and it lasts about 3 days. To better interpret the result, visualization of total 6 days before and after a heavy snowfall is conducted. The result also indicates that weekends have a positive effect on operation. These results are expected to assist us to better understand the effect of snowfall on taxi operation and provide some policy suggestions for local municipal and transportation management departments to ensure the normal operation of taxi networks.