Female and urban participants demonstrate an adverse trend in overall mortality in Turkey – and a report on the TARF survey 2016

Abstract

Objective: This study is an examination of 1) overall mortality trend in the Turkish Adult Risk Factor (TARF) study stratified by sex and place of residence, and 2) brief report on main aspects of the 2016 survey. Methods: The period of last 18 years was divided into 2 for trend analysis of data. Required information on deaths was obtained. Baseline age ≥40 years at the beginning of each period was the inclusion criterion. Cox regression analyses were performed. Results: Among over 2500 participants in each, deaths were recorded in 281 and 334 individuals in Periods 1 and 2, respectively, and baseline mean age was 54.6 years and 56.4 years, respectively, in each period. Age-adjusted hazard ratio for mortality in Period 2 remained virtually the same for rural males, rose to borderline significance for urban males and rural females (p=0.06, p=0.09), and increased 1.72-fold for urban females (p=0.006), as compared to Period 1. Whereas males gained an average of 3.8 years of survival in the later period compared with the earlier period, females gained only 1.8 years. This narrowed the difference in mean age at death in favor of women from 2.5 years to 0.5 year. Of 1144 participants to be surveyed in the TARF 2016, 48 were lost to follow-up, 695 were examined, and 39 participants were ascertained to be deceased. In 362 cases, verbal information was obtained regarding health status. Conclusion: Gain in survival in Turkish women has distinctly stagnated compared with men, and hazard of death has risen significantly for women and urban residents in the past decade, suggesting interaction between female sex and urban residence. Both phenomena require recognition and adoption of appropriate measures.

Keywords

• sex
• mortality/trend
• turkey/epidemiology