Annals of the University of Oradea: Economic Science (Jul 2016)
AN ANALYSIS ON CHINA’S ECONOMICAL GROWTH PERSPECTIVES
Abstract
The current paper aims to give an overview upon the evolution of the Chinese economical growth over the past two decades. By combining two types of analyses, the paper would also like to look on China’s economical growth perspectives in the past two decades. Thus, in the first part of our study we illustrate the results of a descriptive, critical, subjective and qualitative analyses on the main macroeconomic indexes used in determining the economic performance of a country (GDP, GDP per capita, imports and exports). The second part of the paper consists of a quantitative analysis of China’s economical growth, which combines the results of a time series econometric modulation for the GDP macroeconomic variable, and the resulted forecast based on the previously determined pattern. We based our study on a period of time dating from 1990 to 2014, suggesting that China registered a positive evolution both in terms of GDP and GDP per capita, as well as in terms of commercial exchanges, as a result of an economic reform gradually applied. Moreover, in order to determine China’s position within the current hierarchy of power centers, the G7 states (USA, Japan, Great Britain, France, Germany, Canada and Italy) were also introduced in the analysis. In terms of GDP, the United States was an absolute global leader until 2014 when it was outrun by China. As for the quantitative analysis, the period of time taken into consideration was also between the first trimester of 1990 and the third trimester of 2014, the observed values having a trimestral frequency. The final part of the study shows the results of the GDP forecast based on the previously determined ARMA pattern, as well as the forecasts given by the main international organizations (IMF and OECD), claiming China’s worldwide supremacy in terms of GDP, both on a short term (until 2020 - IMF), as well as on a long term and a very long term (until 2045, when Canada will swipe first places - OECD). The main conclusions which can be drawn by this study claim that, despite the slowing down of the GDP increase rate, China became a worldwide leader. Nonetheless, in order for China to keep its status, it must continue its ascending path from the past few decades and reorient to improve its global competitiveness and to ensure its economic sustainability.
