A statewide, weather-regime based stochastic weather generator for process-based bottom-up climate risk assessments in California – Part I: Model evaluation

Abstract

This study is the first of a two-part series presenting a novel weather regime-based stochastic weather generator to support bottom-up climate vulnerability assessments of water systems in California. In Part 1 of this series, we present the details of model development and validation. The model is based on the identification and simulation of weather regimes, or large-scale patterns of atmospheric flow, which are then used to condition the simulation of local, daily weather at a 6 km resolution across the state. We conduct a thorough validation of a baseline, 1000-year model simulation to evaluate its ability to accurately simulate daily precipitation and minimum and maximum temperature at various spatial scales (grid cell, river basin) and temporal scales (daily, event-based, monthly, annual, inter-annual to decadal). Results show that the model effectively reproduces a large suite of climate statistics at these scales across the entire state, including moments, spells, dry and wet extremes, and extreme hot and cold periods. Moreover, the model successfully maintains spatial correlations and inter-variable relationships, enabling the use of model simulations in hydrologic and water resources analyses that span multiple watersheds across California. The weather generator can simulate physically plausible extreme events (e.g., multi-day extreme precipitation and severe drought) that extend beyond the worst case conditions observed historically, independent of climate change. Thus, the baseline simulation can be used to understand the impacts of natural climate variability on both flood and drought risk in regional water systems. Scenarios of climate change are discussed in Part 2.

Keywords

• Stochastic weather generator
• Weather regimes
• Climate change
• Bottom-up
• Downscaling
• Water resources