Dynamic material flow analysis of lutetium resources in China during 2011-2020

Abstract

[Objective] Lutetium is one of the key minerals for the global new materials industry, and clarifying the metabolic process and dynamic evolution of lutetium resources in the socioeconomic system is an important basis for securing the supply of lutetium resources in China. [Methods] Using dynamic material flow analysis, this study quantitatively portrayed the material metabolism panorama of lutetium resources in China from 2011 to 2020, traced the flow patterns and key drivers of lutetium resources in each stage of the whole life cycle, analyzed the in-use stock and end-of-life of lutetium resources, and proposed targeted recommendations for lutetium resource management. [Results] This study found that: (1) The consumption of lutetium resources in China continued to increase from 2011 to 2020, and the proportion of consumption in new industries such as nuclear medical devices and lasers was steadily increasing, with the fastest growth rate in the consumption of positron emission tomography equipment (PET), which is the “star” product of lutetium resources. (2) The lutetium industry was typically demand-driven, with emerging industrial policies stimulating end-product consumption and its structural evolution, and further driving the supply of upstream resources and midstream material. (3) China’s dependence on external lutetium resources has increased significantly since imports have become an important way to meet strong domestic demand, and international trade policies and geopolitical risks are important factors that affect the international trade pattern of lutetium resources. (4) The in-use stock in society and theoretical end-of-life of lutetium resources in China from 2011 to 2020 showed a linear rising trend, with considerable potential for secondary resource development. [Conclusion] Driven by the aging population and industrial policies, the emerging strategic value of lutetium resources in China is coming to the fore with diversified and high-end applications. However, the high international supply dependence of Chinese lutetium resources and the lack of a secondary lutetium resource recycling system present significant supply threats. Dynamic monitoring of the material flow of lutetium resources, upgrading the R&D and manufacturing capacity of high-end lutetium-based products, and developing secondary lutetium resources are expected to promote the sustainable development of China’s lutetium industry.

Keywords

• |dynamic material flow analysis|lutetium resources|heavy rare earths|whole life cycle|flow|stock|china