Enhanced warming of European mountain permafrost in the early 21st century

Abstract

Abstract Mountain permafrost, constituting 30% of the global permafrost area, is sensitive to climate change and strongly impacts mountain ecosystems and communities. This study examines 21st century permafrost warming in European mountains using decadal ground temperature data from sixty-four boreholes in the Alps, Scandinavia, Iceland, Sierra Nevada and Svalbard. During 2013–2022, warming rates at 10 metres depth exceed 1 °C dec−1 in cases, generally surpassing previous estimates because of accelerated warming and the use of a comprehensive data set. Substantial permafrost warming occurred at cold and ice-poor bedrock sites at high elevations and latitudes, at rates comparable to surface air temperature increase. In contrast, latent heat effects in ice-rich ground near 0 °C reduce warming rates and mask important changes of mountain permafrost substrates. The warming patterns observed are consistent across all sites, depths and time periods. For the coming decades, the propagation of permafrost warming to greater depths is largely predetermined already.