Risk Evaluation of Water Environmental Treatment PPP Projects Based on the Intuitionistic Fuzzy MULTIMOORA Improved FMEA Method

Abstract

The water environment treatment public-private partnership (PPP) project has a long cooperation period, large investment scale, high technical requirements, and more complex risks, which are very important to identifying and preventing risks. This paper establishes a risk evaluation model for water environmental treatment PPP projects based on the intuitionistic fuzzy Multi-Objective Optimization on the basis of a Ratio Analysis plus the full Multiplicative form (MULTIMOORA) improved Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) method. Firstly, the risk indicators system of the water environmental treatment PPP project was constructed through the literature frequency statistics method and semi-structured interviews. Subsequently, the intuitionistic fuzzy FMEA method was used to assess the risk factors in terms of three aspects—occurrence(O), severity(S), and non-detectability(D)—and gather expert information, and the expert assessment method and deviation maximization model method were applied to assign the risk factors. Finally, Intuitionistic fuzzy Multi-Objective Optimization on the basis of a Ratio Analysis plus the full Multiplicative form (IF-MULTIMOORA) was applied to determine the risk indicator ranking and was combined with the water environmental treatment PPP project in Pingyu for example verification. The results show that the top five risk levels of PPP projects in Pingyu water environmental treatment are financing risk (changing financing conditions/high costs), market changes, government intervention and credit problems, imperfect legal and regulatory systems, and inflation. The risk assessment model proposed in this paper enables: (1) the evaluation of risk indicators from three perspectives, which is more accurate and comprehensive; (2) the introduction of intuitionistic fuzzy risk factor language variables to reasonably represent expert views; (3) the use of IF-MULTIMOORA for risk ranking to avoid the problem that RNP is the same and difficult to rank. This paper has important practical significance in promoting risk prevention and achieving the sustainable development of water environment treatment PPP projects.

Keywords

• FMEA
• intuitionistic fuzzy number
• MULTIMOORA
• risk assessment