Investigating the relationship between the frequency of thunderstorms and temperature trend in Mashhad

Abstract

This study examined the relationship between frequency of thunderstorms and the mean temperature in the city of Mashhad. For this purpose, the average of monthly and annual temperatures data and average of monthly and annual frequency of thunderstorms for a sixty-year period (1951-2010) was used.The result revealed that maximum frequency of occurrence of thunderstorms in the city of Mashhad occures in May (spring) and maximum average monthly temperature is seen in July in the study period. It is also showed that the mean annual temperature show an acreasing trend despite the relative fluctuation. Generally, the mean annual frequency of thunderstorm events show an increasing trend -in spite of large fluctuations- in Mashhad. Finally, it is found that there is a direct correlation between the mean annual temperature and the frequency of thunderstorm events in the study area; which means that by increasing temperature, the number of thunderstorm events has also been increased. Simulating a sample thunderstorm event over the area with the Weather Research and Forecast Model (WRF), it shows the capability of this model to simulate the corresponding thunderstorm over the region in future.

Keywords

• thunderstorm
• temperature trend
• mashhad
• wrf