An Adaptive Spatial Resolution Method Based on the ST-ResNet Model for Hourly Property Crime Prediction

Abstract

Effective predictive policing can guide police patrols and deter crime. Hourly crime prediction is expected to save police time. The selection of spatial resolution is important due to its strong relationship with the accuracy of crime prediction. In this paper, we propose an adaptive spatial resolution method to select the best spatial resolution for hourly crime prediction. The ST-ResNet model is applied to predict crime risk, with historical crime data and weather data as predictive variables. A prediction accuracy index (PAI) is used to evaluate the accuracy of the results. Data on property crimes committed in Suzhou, a big city in China, were selected as the research data. The experiment results indicate that a 2.4 km spatial resolution leads to the best performance for crime prediction. The adaptive spatial resolution method can be used to guide police deployment.

Keywords

• ST-ResNet
• spatial resolution
• crime prediction
• property crime