Problemi Ekonomiki (Jun 2018)
An Empirical Study of Economic Security of Regions in the Aspect of Ensuring Security of the National Economy
Abstract
The aim of the article is an empirical study of economic security of Ukraine’s regions based on the developed canonical models. To investigate and systematize factors of regional economic security, methods of theoretical generalization are employed. Methods of system analysis, namely the method of canonical analysis, are used to identify latent factors ensuring effective management of regional economic security and develop forecast models of economic security in the regions. The method of comparison has enabled determining the general and distinguishing features of the results of calculating the economic security of the regions based on the two models. The application of the method of canonical analysis to estimating the data on socio-economic development of Ukraine’s regions for 2008-2015 allowed to develop models to forecast economic security of the regions. The results of the canonical analysis indicate that 97.08 % of the variation in the effective indicators of regional economic security is due to variations in the eleven symptom factors. The developed models for assessing regional economic security ZYi (by partial characteristics) and ZXi (by symptom factors) are correct and have a close relationship, which is confirmed by the value of the correlation coefficient (0.97). The applied nature of the proposed models is justified by their practical implementation based on the actual data of social and economic development of Ukraine’s regions for 2008-2016. The introduction of the developed models made it possible to determine that Dnipropetrovsk region has the best state of economic security by the results of 2016, and Lugansk region is the worst in terms of this indicator. In further research, it is appropriate to determine criteria for assessing economic security of the regions, build a matrix of regional economic security, and to formulate the characteristics of their economic security states.
