Innovative trend analysis of annual rainfall in Iraq during 1980-2021

Abstract

Rainfall trend analysis is essential for managing water resources, agriculture, disaster management, and climate change research. The current study aims to examine annual rainfall variability and trend over 38 meteorological stations in Iraq during the period (1980-2021) using three tests: linear regression analysis (LRA), Mann-Kendall (MK), and the innovative trend analysis (ITA). The results of the three different tests showed that most stations recorded a decreasing trend except for four stations in ITA, six stations in MK, and seven stations in the LRA test, which exhibit a positive trend. However, three stations, Emaidyah, Rabiah, and Biji, showed an increasing trend for all three tests. The ITA test recorded more significant results (14 stations) than the other two tests. The larger significant result appeared in the significance level of 95 % (nine in LRA, eight in MK, and five in ITA). The outcomes of the three trend-detection approaches by assessing the statistical significance levels, 90 %, 95 %, and 99 %, revealed no significant trend in 16 stations dispersed throughout the various climatic zones of Iraq. Only Emadiayah station indicated a positive trend at the significance of 99 %. The overall results showed that the ITA test outperformed the MK and LRA tests since it produced more significant results.

Keywords

• Innovative trend analysis
• Mann- Kendall test
• Climate change
• rainfall
• Iraq