Are population size and diverse climatic conditions the driving factors for next COVID-19 pandemic epicenter in India?

Abstract

Although a nationwide lockdown was imposed in India amid COVID-19 outbreak since March 24, 2020, the COVID-19 infection is increasing day-by-day. Till June 10, 2021 India has recorded 29,182,072 COVID cases and 359,695 deaths. A number of factors help to influence COVID-19 transmission rate and prevalence. Accordingly, the present study intended to integrate the climatic parameters, namely ambient air temperature (AT) and relative humidity (H) with population mass (PM) to determine their influence for rapid transmission of COVID-19 in India. The sensibility of AT, H and PM parameters on COVID-19 transmission was investigated based on receiver operating characteristics (ROC) classification model. The results depicted that AT and H models have very low sensibility (i.e., lower area under curve value 0.26 and 0.37, respectively compared with AUC value 0.5) to induce virus transmission and discrimination between infected people and healthy ones. Contrarily, PM model is highly sensitive (AUC value is 0.912, greater than AUC value 0.5) towards COVID-19 transmission and discrimination between infected people and healthy ones and approximate population of 2.25 million must impose like social distancing, personal hygiene, etc. as strategic management policy. Therefore, it is predicted, India could be the next epicenter of COVID-19 outbreak because of its over population.

Keywords

• COVID-19
• Sensitivity analysis
• Receiver operating characteristics
• Population mass
• Ambient air temperature