Impactos sectoriales de la paralización de la actividad debido a impactos externos como el COV ID-19: aproximación basada en la extracción hipotética aplicada a la inserción externa de la economía española

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has brought economic activity to a standstill unprecedented in recent history. The aim of this paper is to analyse the potential economic and sectoral impact resulting from suspension of certain activities. The analysis of production linkages and the hypothetical extraction method constitute the methodology applied, taking as a reference trade relation of Spain with the EU, USA and China in 2015. The results obtained based on the four possible scenarios proposed show a decline in GDP due to the paralysis of a set of sectors, revealing the existence of strong production linkages through Global Value Chains.

Keywords

• Production linkages
• activity standstill
• Global Value Chains
• COVID-19
• Spanish economy.