Risk Assessment of Distribution Lines in Typhoon Weather Considering Socio-economic Factors

Abstract

In recent years, the frequent occurrence of typhoon weather has posed a significant threat to the stable operation of the distribution network in the southeastern coastal areas of China. Ensuring the safety of distribution lines is crucial for the normal functioning of the distribution network. Therefore, this paper proposes a risk assessment method for distribution lines in typhoon weather. Firstly, the risk assessment system for distribution lines is constructed by considering three perspectives: line structure, line state, and social economic factors. Secondly, the weight of each evaluation index is calculated using the analytic hierarchy process and CRITIC weight method. The cooperative game method is then employed to combine the calculation results, and the results are further optimized using variable weight theory. Finally, a cloud model-based risk assessment model for distribution lines is established. The analysis and calculation of distribution network data in a specific area indicate that the risk assessment level, which takes into account social and economic factors, is more accurate compared to other methods discussed in this paper. It is observed that the multi-model approach yields higher accuracy than the single-model approach. Therefore, the proposed method holds significant reference value for evaluating the risk level of distribution lines.

Keywords

• distribution lines
• typhoon weather
• risk assessment
• cooperative game
• cloud model
• variable weight theory