Dizhi lixue xuebao (Feb 2023)
Research on an effective rainfall model for geological disaster early warning in Fujian Province, China
Abstract
Rainfall is one of the most important external factors inducing geological disasters, especially prominent in China’s mountainous regions. Many group-occurring geological disasters induced by heavy rainfall occurred in southeast China’s middle and low mountainous regions, causing many casualties and property losses. Taking Fujian Province as an example, we carefully examined the actual rainfall data of historical geological disaster cases and conducted correlation studies on typical rainfall processes inducing group-occurring geological disasters based on quantitative rainfall estimation with county-level administrative districts as the statistical unit. We also carried out a partial correlation analysis based on quantitative indicators of the geological environment for verification. The result shows that the occurrence of geological disasters in Fujian correlates with adequate rainfall within three days, and it is reduced by a reduction coefficient of 0.79 daily. Based on that finding, we established an effective rainfall model for Fujian Province and verified it through field monitoring and early warning applications. Applying this rainfall model to geological disaster early warning in Fujian can reduce the warning area, lower the warning level, shorten the warning duration, and improve the accuracy of geological disaster early warning by maintaining the hit ratio. The results of the study can help to characterize the rainfall accurately and can provide a scientific basis for the reasonable assessment of rainfall factors in regional geological disaster early warning.
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