Risk assessment of linear part physical safety in the main oil pipeline

Abstract

Relevance of the work is caused by need to protect the objects of the fuel and energy complex from illegal intervention. The main aim of the study is to generalize and to develop a risk assessment technique in hierarchical structures of crucial objects for spatial distributed linear objects of energy industry of the type linear part of the main oil pipeline. The methods used in the study: Mathematical modeling of risk event probability distribution, expert assessment by the Delfi method, ranging method, direct assessment method, numerical integration of risk two-dimensional function in time and space, interpolation of function of the held event trajectory. The results: The authors have proposed the technique for assessing physical safety risk for linear part of the main oil pipeline, implementing GOST P ISO 31000-2010 concept. Physical safety risks of linear part of the main oil pipeline were identify; the mathematical model for assessing risks for spatial spread linear objects of energy industry like linear part of the main oil pipeline was developed to carry out the analysis and comparative assessment of risk. The model allows calculating existential distribution of physical safety risk dimension which is based on the assumption of two-dimensional discrete casual distribution of risk event probability. Resultant value of size of physical safety risk dimension is defined on the basis of data on the held events on control of linear object security. The authors calculated the output parameters of the model for the main pipeline "Aleksandrovsky-Anzhero-Sudzhensk" considering input parameters provided by JSC "Tsentrsibnefteprovod".

Keywords

• risk assessment
• oil pipeline
• physical safety
• matrix of risk distribution
• spatiotemporal distribution
• cumulative risk